Greetings,
Last Modification
From November 24 to November 28, 2025, U.S. markets posted solid gains in a holiday-shortened week, fueled by optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and upbeat retail sales data.
Stocks rebounded strongly on Monday as investors piled into beaten-down technology and consumer discretionary names, lifting the Nasdaq nearly 2.7% and the S&P 500 by 1.6%. Momentum carried through the week despite light trading volumes around Thanksgiving, with AI-related stocks stabilizing after recent volatility and Black Friday retail activity adding confidence to consumer strength. By Friday’s close, the Dow rose 3.2%, the S&P 500 gained 3.7%, and the Nasdaq surged 4.9% for the week. Energy and financials led sector performance, while healthcare lagged. A temporary CME futures outage briefly disrupted overnight trading midweek, but markets shrugged it off. Rate cut expectations jumped to nearly 87% for December, driven by dovish Fed commentary and softer inflation data, setting the stage for heightened anticipation ahead of the December 9–10 FOMC meeting
The Plan
Weekend Observations
Weekend Observations
Weekend observations suggest that trading into the week of December 1, 2025, will be shaped by strong consumer spending data, heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and lingering volatility in technology stocks.
Holiday shopping reports showed record online sales, with Thanksgiving and Black Friday purchases exceeding forecasts, reinforcing confidence in consumer discretionary sectors. At the same time, markets closed last week on a risk-on tone, with investors pricing in an 80–85% chance of another Fed rate cut in December, following dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams. However, the Nasdaq’s monthly decline highlights ongoing concerns about AI-related profitability, which could weigh on tech sentiment despite the recent rally. Thin liquidity from the holiday-shortened sessions also amplified volatility, reminding traders to brace for sharper moves as institutional participation normalizes. Together, these factors set the stage for a cautious but optimistic start to December, with consumer strength and monetary policy expectations driving momentum while sector rotation remains a key theme.
Monday
12/01/2025
- Indices down • Metals up • VIX up • BTC down
- Basic Materials • Energy • Consumer Defensive up
- Gold • Silver • Other Precious Metals & Mining up
- Heat Map: Victorian Christmas
- $QTTB $DRCT $WBUY $NEM $DASH $FCX up $COIN $HOOD $ADTX $WAI down
- Crypto: down
- NAAIM Exposure Index: 89.92
- Fear & Greed Index: 23 Extreme Fear
- Earnings AMC: $CRDO $MDB $VSTS $SLP
- Earnings tomorrow BMO: $BNS $SIG $UNFI $BWLP $CTRN
- 9:45 am S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI Nov. 51.9
- 10:00 am ISM manufacturing Nov. — 48.7%
- 8:00 pm Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: Hmmm
At 8:00 pm ET on December 1, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the Federal Reserve’s evolving monetary policy stance, focusing on inflation, employment, and the official end of quantitative tightening (QT).
Powell’s speech is especially significant because it comes just before the Fed’s December 9–10 FOMC meeting and during the blackout period when officials stop public commentary. Traders are watching closely for hints of a December rate cut, with market odds already near 85%.
Welcome to December,
Make it Happen!
Tuesday
12/02/2025
- Indices up • Metals down • VIX down BTC up
- Technology • Financial • Utilities • Communication Services up
- Utilities – Regulated Water • Food Distribution up
- Heat Map: Late Summer
- $TAOP $MDB $CRDO $COIN $HOOD up $MU $NEM $DASH $ABTC $JANX down
- Crypto: up
- Fear & Greed Index: 22 Extreme Fear
- Earnings AMC: $CRWD $MRVL $OKTA $GTLB $LESL $BOX $AEO $PSTG
- Earnings tomorrow BMO: $RY $DLTR $M $THO $CXM $YB $WDH
- 10:00 am Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies
- TBA Auto sales Nov. — 16.4 million
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: Medal of Honor Act • SUPPORT for Patients and Communications Reauthorization Act
Powell’s speech last night is likely to affect markets by reinforcing rate‑cut expectations while also injecting caution into risk assets. Traders interpreted his tone as cautiously dovish.
Overall, expect choppy but upward‑leaning trade, constrained by lingering uncertainty around global policy and geopolitical developments.
Rare earths are trading with strength today, supported by clean‑energy demand and strategic supply chain moves. Lynas Rare Earths shares surged over 130% on December 2, 2025, highlighting investor confidence in integrated processing capabilities outside China.
Good luck today. Remember: a single act of courage outweighs a thousand speeches of intent.
Make it Happen!
Wednesday
12/03/2025
- Indices up • Metals up • VIX down • BTC up
- Energy • Utilities • Basic Materials • Industrials up
- Recreational Vehicles • Copper • Marine Shipping up
- Hear Map: Late Summer
- $PMAX $CMCT $COIN $HOOD $MCHP up $SNDK $MU $ACHC down
- Crypto: up
- Fear & Greed Index: 25 Extreme Fear
- Earnings AMC: $CRM $SNOW $PATH $AI $MEI $TLYS
- Earnings tomorrow BMO: $TD $BMO $DG $ADXN
- 8:15 am ADP employment Nov. 40,000 42,000
- 8:30 am Import price index (delayed report) Sept. 0.1% 0.3%
- 8:30 am Import price index minus fuel Sept. — 0.4%
- 9:15 am Industrial production (delayed report) Sept. 0.1% 0.1%
- 9:15 am Capacity utilization Sept. 77.3% 77.4%
- 9:45 am S&P final U.S. services PMI Nov. 55.0 55.0
- 10:00 am ISM services Nov. 52.5% 52.5%
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: Trump Accounts are here for American children.
Scheduled U.S. releases today include ADP employment, import prices, and ISM services, all of which may sharpen expectations for a potential Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. With volatility heightened by year-end positioning and seasonal flows, today’s trading could pivot quickly on how these reports align with the Fed’s cautious stance.
Commit—don’t let distractions alter your course. Before someone achieves greatness, it often seems like a bad idea. Turn friction into fuel, resistance into resilience, and obstacles into the very momentum that drives you forward.
Good luck today,
Make it Happen!
Thursday
12/04/2025
- Indices mixed • Metals down • VIX down • BTC unchanged
- Communication Services • Consumer Cyclical • Consumer Defensive up
- Shell Companies • Packaged Foods • Specialty Retail up
- Heat Map: Early Fall
- $PLRZ $TLYS $HRL $CRM up $COST $PYPL $SYM $SNOW down
- Crypto: mixed
- Fear & Greed Index: 31 Fear
- Earnings AMC: $HPE $IOT $DOCU $ULTA $S $TTAN
- Earnings tomorrow BMO: $VSCO $KNOP $TOUR $MNY
- 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Nov. 29 220,000 216,000
- 12:00 pm Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: Accomplishments & Leadership
This morning’s focus will be on the release of initial jobless claims, expected at 216,000, alongside remarks from Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman at noon, both of which could sway sentiment and reinforce anticipation ahead of the December 9–10 FOMC meeting.
It takes a village to raise a child, and it takes a community to shape a trader. Markets aren’t conquered in isolation; they’re navigated through shared wisdom, collective sentiment, and the rhythm of crowd psychology. Every chart is a chorus of voices, every candle a reflection of fear and hope.
Welcome aboard newest members! Every perspective adds strength to our group, and yours is valued from day one. And to those who’ve been listening quietly, remember: even a single observation can shift the way we see the market. This is a space where every voice matters, whether loud or soft. Step forward when you’re ready—we’re here to learn and grow together.
Good luck today …
Make it Happen!
Friday
12/05/2025
- Indices up • Metals up • VIX down • BTC down
- Basic Materials • Technology • Communication Services up
- Real Estate Development • Silver • Metals & Mining up
- Heat Map: Early Fall
- $SMX $LGHL $COO $ULTA up $HPE $PLRZ $TARA $SPWH down
- Crypto: down
- Fear & Greed Index: 40 Fear
- Earnings Today: none
- Earnings Monday: $CMP COE $ODC $OOMA PHR $SGU
- 8:30 am Personal income (delayed report) Sept. 0.3% 0.4%
- 8:30 am Personal spending (delayed report) Sept. 0.4% 0.3%
- 8:30 am PCE index (delayed report) Sept. 0.3% 0.3%
- 8:30 am PCE (year-over-year) 2.9% 2.9%
- 8:30 am Core PCE index (delayed report) Sept. 0.2% 0.2%
- 8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year) 2.8% 2.7%
- 10:00 am Consumer sentiment (prelim) Dec. 52.0 51.0
- 3:00 pm Consumer credit Oct. $10.5B $13.1B
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: Christmas and America First
Before the market opens today, traders are focused on the delayed U.S. inflation data (PCE index), Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations, and several key corporate earnings. Futures are modestly higher, but volatility could spike once the economic reports hit. PCE data drop at 8:30 a.m. ET – That’s the moment markets will react.
Persistence beats prediction. The wolf doesn’t guess the wind—it adapts to it.
Prediction is fragile because it depends on forecasts, models, and guesses about what might happen, often crumbling when the unexpected arrives. Persistence, by contrast, is durable—it draws strength from discipline, resilience, and the steady ability to keep moving forward no matter the conditions.
In trading, prediction is an attempt to outsmart the market, but persistence is the force that outlasts it, proving that endurance and adaptability are more powerful than any forecast.
Hope you improve 2% more every day than the day before. Persist!
Make it Happen1
Around the Bend…
- MONDAY, DEC. 8
- None scheduled
- TUESDAY, DEC. 9
- 6:00 am NFIB optimism index Nov. 98.2
- 10:00 am Job openings (delayed report) Oct. — *7.2 million
- WEDNESDAY, DEC. 10
- 8:30 am Employment cost index (delayed report) Q3
- 2:00 pm Monthly U.S. federal budget Nov.
- 2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision
- 2:30 pm Fed Chair Powell press conference
- THURSDAY, DEC. 11
- 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Dec. 6
- FRIDAY, DEC. 12
- None scheduled
The Scan
Links
5:30 AM – Coffee and The Scan. The links below fuel my morning notes, which are made pertaining to indicators, news, noise, and reading traders’ morning thoughts, which pave the way for markets opening.
Options Calculator
EDGAR System
The proverb “Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket” means don’t risk everything on a single plan or idea. It advises diversifying resources to minimize potential loss. The saying alludes to gathering all the eggs from your hens into one basket so that if you should drop the basket, you lose all your eggs. Sorry, but I disagree … read on
The concerns which fail are those which have scattered their capital, which means that they have scattered their brains also. They have investments in this, or that, or the other, here, there and everywhere. “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” is all wrong. I tell you “put all your eggs in one basket, and then watch that basket.” Look round you and take notice; men who do that do not often fail. It is easy to watch and carry the one basket. It is trying to carry too many baskets that breaks most eggs in this country. He who carries three baskets must put one on his head, which is apt to tumble and trip him up. One fault of the American business man is lack of concentration. June 23, 1885 Andrew Carnegie
I believe that moving the closest to perfecting a profitable trading process requires a persistent focus on fine-tuning a programmatically consistent approach of relentless action.