Greetings,
Last Modification
Looking Back …
The week of January 12–16, 2026 delivered a volatile, headline‑driven market defined by early shock, mid‑week resilience, and a cautious fade into the long weekend.
U.S. equities opened the week under pressure as news broke that the Department of Justice had launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, sparking a sharp risk‑off move and heavy selling in bank and credit‑card names. Despite the chaos, the S&P 500 and Dow clawed back to fresh all‑time highs on January 12 as traders ultimately shrugged off the political noise and rotated into mega‑cap tech and retail leadership, with Alphabet hitting a $4T valuation and Walmart rallying on its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100Investopedia. Safe‑haven flows surged, sending gold above $4,600/oz and silver to record highs. Globally, sentiment remained cautious as India’s Nifty and Sensex extended declines on tariff concerns and weak momentum. By week’s end, U.S. markets were still digesting the Powell probe, Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit‑card interest rates, and upcoming earnings, leaving traders positioned defensively ahead of the MLK holiday closure.
In a Tweet
A wild week: DOJ shock on Powell, tech dragged markets back to highs, metals ripped to records, and traders closed Friday cautious into the MLK break.
The Plan
Weekend Observations
Weekend Observations
The weekend heading into Monday, January 19 sets up a market that’s tense, headline‑sensitive, and primed for sharp early‑week repricing. With the Powell investigation still hanging over sentiment and metals screaming to record highs, traders are entering the week balancing fear‑driven hedging with the reality that big‑cap tech continues to absorb flows and drag indices higher. Global tone remains cautious after India’s continued weakness and tariff chatter, while U.S. traders are coming off a long weekend—meaning Monday’s open often delivers exaggerated moves as two days of unpriced news, positioning shifts, and options decay collide at once. Expect a market that tests emotional discipline early: fast rotations, wide spreads, and a “prove it” attitude toward any breakout or breakdown. The edge goes to traders who treat the open like a reset—reactive enough to read the tape, but patient enough to avoid being the first cart over the drop.
In a Tweet
Rolling into Jan 19 with a headline‑heavy setup: Powell probe overhang, metals at records, tech still carrying the tape, and long‑weekend volatility ready to hit the open.
Monday – Markets closed today MLK observance
01/19/2026
Tuesday
01/20/2026
- Indices down • Energy up • Metals up • VIX up • BTC down
- Basic Materials up
- Silver • Other Precious Metals & Mining • Gold
- Heat Map: Hell
- $NEM $AMCR $EQT $EXE $CRVS $IBRX $TWG $BTTC up
- $APP $DOW $NTAP $DNTH $STOK $VERO $JAGX $SPHL down
- Crypto: down
- NAAIM Exposure Index: 97.72
- Fear & Greed Index: 62 Greed
- Earnings AMC: $NFLX $UAL $IBKR $WTFC $ZION $KARO $PRGS more
- Earnings Wednesday BMO: $JNJ $SCHW $PLD $TEL $HAL $TDY more
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: Private and Foreign Investment.
Futures are flashing a risk‑off open this morning as markets digest escalating Greenland‑linked tariff threats, with Dow futures down nearly 700 points, S&P futures off ~1.4%, and Nasdaq futures pointing to a ~1.7% drop. The tone is defensive: yields spiked, the dollar slipped, and Europe is openly considering countermeasures to the U.S. tariff plan. This sets up an opening tape that’s likely fast, emotional, and headline‑reactive.
The market is opening into unpriced geopolitical escalation, so early moves may overshoot in both directions. The smart play is patience in the first 15–30 minutes.
Expected Range Table
(Based on 1‑day expected move — ≈68% probability)
| ETF | Last Price | Expected Move | Lower Range | Upper Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 691.66 | ±2.66 | 689.00 | 694.32 |
| QQQ | 621.19 | ±4.35 | 616.84 | 625.54 |
| IWM | 265.76 | ±2.07 | 263.69 | 267.83 |
Wednesday
01/21/2026
- Indices down • Energy mixed • Metals mixed • VIX down • BTC down
- Basic Materials • Energy • Real Estate • Utilities up
- Insurance – Reinsurance • Other Precious Metals & Mining up
- Heat Map: Fall
- $UAL $TDY $EXE $HAL $NEM $AVR $NATH $SLGB $BNAI $BOXL up
- $NFLX $KHC $TEL XRX $CRVS $IBG $CURG $TWG $ALBT down
- Crypto: down
- Fear & Greed Index: 47 neutral
- Earnings AMC: $KMI $PNFP $CACI $KNX $RLI more
- Earnings Thursday BMO: $PG $GE $ABT $FCX $MBLY $NG $ACMR
- DAVOS
- 10:00 am Construction spending (delayed report) Oct. 0.1% 0.2%+
- 10:00 am Pending home sales Dec. 1.0% 3.3%
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: “Winning will continue”
Markets are opening into a fragile, headline‑driven environment this morning, with futures stabilizing after yesterday’s sharp selloff. Today is slightly better than yesterday — but only in the sense that markets are stabilizing, not recovering. Futures are flat-to-positive after Tuesday’s brutal selloff, but the same catalysts that caused the drop are still active, so the tape remains fragile and headline‑driven.
A goal without a plan is just a wish. A target without a timeline is a wish in disguise. A wish has no power, though it still whispers in the ear of hope.
If your goal is trading success, see it, live it, work backward from it. The charts will always wait for disciplined action.
Good luck today …
Make it Happen!
Thursday
01/22/2026
- Indices up • Energy down • Metals mixed • VIX down • BTC up
- Communication Services • Technology • Consumer Cyclical up
- Rentals & Leasing Services • Uranium • Scientific Instruments up
- Heat Map: Late Summer
- $MRNA • DDOG $WDC $GLSI $HG $IOTR $SXTP $NITO $GLSI up
- $MKC $ABT $HBAN $AXGN $VEEE $PAPL $GLXG $BOXL down
- Crypto: up
- Fear & Greed Index: 51 neutral
- Earnings $INTC $ISRG $COF $CSX $AA many more
- Earnings Friday BMO: $SLB $ERIC $FCNCA $BAH $WBS
- 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Jan. 17 208,000 198,000
- 8:30 am GDP (first revision) Q3 4.3% 4.3%
- 10:00 am Personal income (delayed report) Nov. 0.4% 0.4%++
- 10:00 am Personal spending (delayed report) Nov. 0.5% 0.4%++
- 10:00 am PCE index (delayed report) Nov. 0.2% 0.3%++
- 10:00 am PCE (year-over-year) — 2.8%++
- 10:00 am Core PCE index Nov. 0.2% 0.2%++
- 10:00 am Core PCE (year-over-year)
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: DAVOS America’s leadership and vision
Markets are setting up for a relief‑driven, risk‑on open today as easing Greenland‑related tariff fears continue to unwind the recent volatility, with U.S. futures green across the board and global equities following suit.
For trading, lean into the broadening risk appetite: favor high‑beta tech and cyclicals on early strength, but stay nimble around the PCE release, which could spark a volatility pocket. Dip‑buying remains the dominant theme, This rally is headline‑sensitive and can whipsaw if geopolitical tone shifts.
Have a great day …
Make it Happen!
Friday
01/23/2026
- Indices down • Energy up • Metals up • VIX up • BTC down
- Energy • Basic Materials • Healthcare • Technology up
- Real Estate – Diversified • Staffing & Employment Services up
- Heat Map: Fall
- $FTNT $AMD $ISRG $LIF$RDW $CHRS $MOVE $DRCT $RVYL up
- $COF $MRNA $INTC $MTRN $TYRA $SEC $NUAI $CDT down
- Crypto down!
- Fear & Greed Index: 53 neutral
- Earnings AMC: none
- Earnings Monday: $BKR $NUE $BRO many more
- 10:00 am Consumer sentiment (final) Jan. 54.0 54.0
- 9:45 am S&P flash U.S. services PMI Jan. — 52.5
- 9:45 am S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI Jan. — 51.8
- Truth Social @WhiteHouse: “A defining moment in history. A clear mandate from the American people. 365 days later, President Donald J. Trump is delivering, patriotism is rising, America is BACK, and the story is just getting started.”
Today sets up as a cautious, two‑way session: U.S. markets closed strong yesterday, but GIFT Nifty softness, mixed Asian markets, and India’s sharp selloff point to a fragile open. Expect early chop, with tech leading if futures stay green and commodities supporting energy/materials. Trade the extremes — buy dips, fade rips — and stay nimble around earnings‑driven volatility.
Good luck today …
Make it Happen!
Around the Bend…
- MONDAY, JAN. 26
- 8:30 am Durable-goods orders (delayed report) Nov. -2.2%
- 8:30 am Durable-goods minus transportation Nov. 0.2%
- TUESDAY, JAN. 27
- 10:00 am Consumer confidence Jan. 89.1
- WEDNESDAY, JAN. 28
- 2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision
- 2:30 pm Fed Chair Powell press conference
- THURSDAY, JAN. 29
- 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Jan. 24
- 8:30 am U.S. trade deficit (delayed report) Nov. -$29.4B
- 8:30 am U.S. productivity (revised) Q3 4.9%
- 10:00 am Wholesale inventories (delayed report) Nov. 0.2%
- 10:00 am Factory orders (delayed report) Nov. -1.3%
- FRIDAY, JAN. 30
- 8:30 am Producer price index (delayed report) Dec. 0.2%
- 8:30 am Core PPI Dec. 0.2%
- 8:30 am PPI year over year 3.0%
- 8:30 am Core PPI year over year 3.5%
The Scan
Links
5:30 AM – Coffee and The Scan. The links below fuel my morning notes, which are made pertaining to indicators, news, noise, and reading traders’ morning thoughts, which pave the way for markets opening.
Options Calculator
EDGAR System
The proverb “Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket” means don’t risk everything on a single plan or idea. It advises diversifying resources to minimize potential loss. The saying alludes to gathering all the eggs from your hens into one basket so that if you should drop the basket, you lose all your eggs. Sorry, but I disagree … read on
The concerns which fail are those which have scattered their capital, which means that they have scattered their brains also. They have investments in this, or that, or the other, here, there and everywhere. “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” is all wrong. I tell you “put all your eggs in one basket, and then watch that basket.” Look round you and take notice; men who do that do not often fail. It is easy to watch and carry the one basket. It is trying to carry too many baskets that breaks most eggs in this country. He who carries three baskets must put one on his head, which is apt to tumble and trip him up. One fault of the American business man is lack of concentration. June 23, 1885 Andrew Carnegie
I believe that moving the closest to perfecting a profitable trading process requires a persistent focus on fine-tuning a programmatically consistent approach of relentless action.